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Dec 6, 2023 · After 30 hours, vertical wind shear values are forecast to ramp up to 33 knots by 48 hours, and will likely influence a weakening trend to transpire. The JTWC forecast is supported by the sustainment of the near equatorial ridge east of the TC and eventually (72 to 120 hours) the building subtropical ridge to the south, which is expected to steer the system to a more westward trajectory by 120 ...
Mar 1, 2023 · An example of a JTWC forecast graphic for Tropical Storm 16W, issued at 1500 UTC 14 September 2022. The TC forecast positions are denoted by TC symbols along a solid blue curve. The red, dark red, and purple bounding areas centered on each forecast position denote the forecast radii of 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt winds, respectively.
The real-time guidance system currently produces two types of intensity guidance plots. The first type include the typical suite of forecast aids in the operational suite. The second type includes experimental intensity forecast aids. The contents of each plot type are described in more detail in the guide to standard intensity plots and the ...
Sep 1, 1990 · Abstract This report examines the impact of synoptic reconnaissance by United States Air Force aircraft on the accuracy of tropical cyclone motion forecasts. Synoptic reconnaissance missions were requested for the purpose of collecting data on atmospheric conditions in proximity to developed cyclones at levels and locations which were assumed to govern the future motion of each storm. The ...
Sep 1, 2023 · For example, JTWC, NHC, and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) use the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (Sampson and Schrader 2000) platform, which is used to overlay and manually adjust wind radii analyses over the wind speed graphics provided by Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) that serve as a first guess (Cangialosi and Landsea 2016 ...
2.2. JTWC The RMS intensity forecast errors in the Western North Pacific (WNP) basin from JTWC forecasts have continued to decrease since 2018, consistent with the long-term 20-year trend (Fig. 2). The RMS errors at lead times of 72–120 h set a record low in 2021, and RMS errors at a lead time of 48 h was the second-lowest recorded.
Mar 1, 2023 · The RMS intensity forecast errors in the Western North Pacific (WNP) basin from JTWC forecasts have continued to decrease since 2018, consistent with the long-term 20-year trend (Fig. 2). The RMS errors at lead times of 72–120 h set a record low in 2021, and RMS errors at a lead time of 48 h was the second-lowest recorded.
